Nigeria’s inflation falls further to 15.99% in October

The consumer price index (CPI), which measures the rate of change in prices of goods and services, declined for the seventh consecutive time to 15.99 percent in October 2021.

The figure is 1.76per cent points higher than the rate recorded in October 2020 (14.23) percent.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said this in its monthly CPI report released on Monday.

According to the bureau, increases were recorded in all Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (COICOP) divisions that yielded the headline index.

“On a month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 0.98 percent in October 2021, this is 0.17 percent rate lower than the rate recorded in September 2021 (1.15) percent,” the report said.

“The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending October 2021 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 16.96 percent, showing 0.13 percent point from 16.83 percent recorded in September 2021.”

According to the NBS, the urban inflation rate increased by 16.52 percent (year-on-year) in October 2021 from 14.81 percent recorded in October 2020, while the rural inflation rate increased by 15.48 percent in October 2021 from 13.68 percent in October 2020.

On a month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 1.02 percent in October 2021, down by 0.19 percentage point the rate recorded in September 2021 (1.21) percent, while the rural index also rose by 0.95 percent in October 2021, down by 0.15 percentage point the rate that was recorded in September 2021 (1.10) percent.

The twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 17.53 percent in October 2021. This is higher than 17.41 percent reported in September 2021, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in October 2021 is 16.39 percent compared to 16.26 percent recorded in September 2021.

Also, the composite food index rose by 18.34 percent in October 2021 compared to 17.38 percent in October 2020.

This rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Food product Coffee, tea and cocoa, Milk, cheese and eggs, Bread and cereals, Vegetables and Potatoes, yam and other tuber.

On a month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 0.91 percent in October 2021, down by 0.35 percent points from 1.26 percent recorded in September 2021.

The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending October 2021 over the previous twelve-month average was 20.75 percent, 0.04 percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in September 2021 (20.71) percent.

The “All items less farm produce” or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 13.24 percent in October 2021, up by 2.10 percent points when compared with 11.14 percent recorded in October 2020.

On a month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 0.80 percent in October 2021. This was down by 0.44 percent point when compared with 1.24 percent recorded in September 2021.

The highest increases were recorded in prices of Gas, Fuels and lubricants for personal transport equipments, Vehicle spare parts, Non-durable household goods, Solid fuel, Passenger transport by road, Passenger transport by air, Garments, Cleaning, repair and hire of clothing, Major household appliances whether electric or not, Wine, Clothing materials, other articles of clothing and clothing accessories and Liquid fuel.

The average 12-month annual rate of change of the index was 12.73 percent for the twelve-month period ending October 2021; this is 0.18 percent points higher than the 12.55 percent recorded in September 2021.

In analysing price movements under this section, the statistics office noted that the CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns which differ across states. Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from state to state making interstate comparisons of consumption baskets inadvisable and potentially misleading

In October 2021, all items inflation on a year-on-year basis was highest in Bauchi (19.63%), Gombe (19.33%) and Jigawa (19.07%), while Kwara (11.82%), Edo (13.31%) and Rivers (13.66%) recorded the slowest rise in headline year-on-year inflation.

On a month-on-month basis, however, October 2021, recorded the highest increases in Cross River (2.14%), Benue/Kebbi (2.02%) and Yobe (1.71%), While the slowest rise in inflation for all item were Adamawa (0.18%), Kano and Kogi recording price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the prices of goods and services or a negative inflation rate).

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